tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post3467430084703503728..comments2023-11-02T07:25:45.884-05:00Comments on Mormanity - a blog for those interested in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints: Easter and the Corona Virus: Rays of Hope in a Time of DarknessJeff Lindsayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-58210158810317871262020-04-20T11:25:08.992-05:002020-04-20T11:25:08.992-05:00Get out there, Jeff, and do your part! Hit the str...Get out there, Jeff, and do your part! Hit the streets! Just keep away from me and mine. <br />And you sure weren't lying when you said "I'm not a mathematician." Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-37609432561585942832020-04-18T23:46:15.986-05:002020-04-18T23:46:15.986-05:00Sure, it’s a government concerned with stamping ou...Sure, it’s a government concerned with stamping out a new virus rather than stamping out a new religion, but doesn’t this whole “avoiding trouble by worshiping at home” thing take you back to the earliest Christian church? Just think of it as a <i>restoration</i>, Jeff!<br /><br />— OKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-88033055265185099772020-04-17T23:01:56.427-05:002020-04-17T23:01:56.427-05:00How did that fast work?How did that fast work?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-16055104013544302632020-04-16T16:34:24.761-05:002020-04-16T16:34:24.761-05:00Anon @ 2:00PM, yes, aware of that. An interesting ...Anon @ 2:00PM, yes, aware of that. An interesting irony that was swift to be reported, properly so, while hundreds of congregations that met without apparent disaster won't get reported. But I think he was taking a serious risk and perhaps was too careless. When there's an epidemic of anything, it's smart to take precautions. <br /><br />I think it's wise that we are postponing services in my faith, but even after we resume, there will be the risk that a bishop, missionary, or any given member might pick up something and become ill. That's a risk we've lived with every day for centuries. With the porous borders we have plus international travel, it's a risk we may increasingly face in the future as viruses from anywhere can show up here quickly. <br /><br />The risk will always be there. But let each community and individual decide how to cope with that risk rather than impose one-size-fits all draconian measures on an entire state or nation. New York has a public transportation system that makes rapid spread of disease very easy. The risk is much different in small towns like Syracuse. Jeff Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-14308613234098077712020-04-16T16:16:14.964-05:002020-04-16T16:16:14.964-05:00Governor Cuomo said that if all their efforts save...Governor Cuomo said that if all their efforts save just one life, then he would be happy. His extreme measures would be justified. <br /><br />Many people fall for this infantile logic today. But if preventing or temporarily delaying one death from COVID-19 is worth so much pain and expense, why are we only thinking about that disease? Hundreds die from automobile accidents in New York. Why not simply make driving illegal? Confiscate cars and especially motorcycles. Bikes, too. Sadly, some sports injuries are fatal. Shall we ban all sports, professional and amateur, including a few kids playing basketball in a part because, as we all know, sooner or later someone can die directly or from complications? <br /><br />For those of you who may have trouble seeing the big picture, let's just look at hospitals. The most common source of the germs that lead to fatalities from hospital-acquired infections is ... (can you guess?) ... hospitals! They are dangerous places filled with drug-resistant germs and viruses, not to mention lots of infectious sick people. If we simply burn all hospitals to the ground and never open another one, we will save thousands of lives from hospital-acquired infections. Don't you care about their suffering and death? There are about 99,000 deaths each year from this source (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hospital-acquired_infection). That's more than we are likely to have from COVID-19. So let's just raze hospitals to show how much we care for the health of the nation. <br /><br />Do you see any problem with that proposal? Hint: there's a bigger picture that needs to be considered. Focusing on one problem and doing whatever it takes to solve it may make other problems much worse. That's the point of my post. I do care about our health, and that's why I reject Governor Cuomo's outrageous statement and reject the politically-driven push to keep us all locked down even though we've achieved the flattening of the curve that was the motive for the lock down already (preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed: done!). It's time to take of the chains and get back to life and healthy living, not cowering in fear while bureaucrats inflate their power and tell us how to live, when we can work, when we can step outside, and what we can and cannot buy at Walmart. Jeff Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-88878777758337355582020-04-16T15:59:14.117-05:002020-04-16T15:59:14.117-05:00"Rate of 3.84%"
I'm afraid you miss..."Rate of 3.84%"<br /><br />I'm afraid you missed the discussion above of the difference between Case Fatality Rate vs. Infection Fatality Rate. Important distinction. The US may lack useful data on IFR due to inadequate testing. The World Economic Forum has a good discussion on why the rate reported in the US may be grossly inflated: see https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/we-could-be-vastly-overestimating-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-heres-why/. If 80% of the people infected don't go to the hospital and are never counted, an apparent death rate of 3.8% might really be 0.76%, closer to what Oxford is telling us. Jeff Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-33924988177028305952020-04-16T15:56:16.390-05:002020-04-16T15:56:16.390-05:00"Take off the tinfoil hat and think about the..."Take off the tinfoil hat and think about the health and safety of others for once." How is ignoring the overall health of the nation more caring than my approach? It is precisely the overall health and wellbeing of the nation that motivates me to challenge the unfortunate panic you have succumbed to. Not your fault because the media and the political leaders you trust have been using bogus models to predict that huge numbers will die unless we turn totalitarian powers over to your elite leaders. But I hope you'll look around and consider the many being harmed in the name of simply delaying slightly the deaths of some of us more vulnerable people. You can put your faith in a miraculous vaccine that might never show up (a la the HIV vaccine that we've been waiting for for almost 40 years) and out your faith in a few anointed prophets of doom who tells us we need to stay locked up for months, or you can rise up and get back to life and freedom and helping to reduce rather than exacerbate the ravages of poverty on the physical and mental health of a nation. Jeff Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-92182170691298965572020-04-16T15:40:53.642-05:002020-04-16T15:40:53.642-05:00"Not sure where you got these numbers..."..."Not sure where you got these numbers..."<br /><br />The Lancet is a world-renowned medical journal. I read their very early publication from Jan. 24, 2020 with an initial estimate of 15% death rate for those infected. See https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext. About a week later, they published a second report giving a rate of 11%. See https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext. That's a study I mentioned here in one of my early posts. Sample sizes were small, testing was limited. But this is what happens early with a new virus. High initial estimates that drop over time. <br /><br />In early February, JAMA (perhaps the most famous medical journal) gave one of the next estiamtes of mortality, pegging it at 4.3%, another reduction. See https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044. Then in a global briefing, the WHO released data on March 3, 2020 telling us that "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died." Another reduction. See https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020. Other data sources since then have brought the number down further. Iceland puts it well under 1%, and Oxford is estimating it is probably below 0.4%. <br /><br />15% .... 11% .... 4% .... 3% .... 1.3% .... 1% .... 0.4% .... I'm not much of a mathematician, but I think there's something of a downward trend there. Cruise ships do not give us the most reliable data for the general population because random representative samples of the general population are not who you find on cruise ships. You are more likely to find us more vulnerable older folks there (too expensive and restrictive for me, though I went once for a family reunion and really loved it, though I feared it would be torture) and that can inflate the apparent death rate. Look for widespread testing of large portions of a population to understand the real death rate. Kudos to Iceland for their data. <br />Jeff Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-50509634553543181202020-04-15T14:00:24.758-05:002020-04-15T14:00:24.758-05:00“The idea of police tracking down and forcing quar...“The idea of police tracking down and forcing quarantine on citizens for choosing to attend an Easter service seems outrageous.”<br /><br />https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/bishop-who-preached-god-larger-dreaded-virus-dies-covid-19-n1183281Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-44427135489466242522020-04-15T12:15:18.245-05:002020-04-15T12:15:18.245-05:00Anon @ 11:32
"Take off the tinfoil hat and ...Anon @ 11:32 <br /><br />"Take off the tinfoil hat and think about the health and safety of others for once. And keep quiet about your crackpot notions inspired by whatever wild thought skitters across your synapses. This won't be solved by you. Things are NEVER solved by the complainers and critics."<br /><br />Ironic, seeing that your yourself are a devoted critic of that which meets with your disapproval. I encourage you to take a sufficient dose of your own medicine and realize that Jeff will not be cowed by your complaining. More substantive criticism will be needed if you're going to produce a change. <br /><br />In any case, I consider it ponderously rich that you accuse Jeff of not thinking about the health and safety of others. From here it looks like Jeff sees the picture of health and safety holistically, including mental safety and the global deaths and despair (with attendant deaths thereof) that come from poverty. Health and safety is more than "not infected with coronavirus." Coronavirus is not the One True Threat To Human Life. We live in a complicated threat environment with cancer and heart disease and alcoholism and other poverty-exacerbated killers waiting in the wings to scoop up those whose lives the lockdown destroys. It is not irresponsibility but prudence to consider that destroyed life quality is significant, as are deaths from sources not attributable to coronavirus. If our goal is "general health and safety" and we end up destroying more lives by fighting coronavirus then we stood to lose, then we have failed. <br /><br />Furthermore, please put the "tinfoil hat" rhetoric away. Jeff did not advance conspiracy theories or unsupported data. <br /><br />Please look at the situation with a view towards the future, not just the proximate eradication of the hysterical threat du jour. Shortsightedness destroys things, as do moral panics. Neither are befitting of informed citizens of a distinguished republic. Hoosiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-14806111988492179372020-04-14T22:01:25.122-05:002020-04-14T22:01:25.122-05:00“it looked like the death rate was over 10% (11% t...“it looked like the death rate was over 10% (11% to 17%, as I recall)”<br /><br />Not sure where you got these numbers other than possible speculation of calamatists. The best reliable snapshot we had in the beginning was the Diamond Princess cruise ship which had a mortality rate of ~1.3% (of those infected). Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-54945783506982798492020-04-14T17:17:18.169-05:002020-04-14T17:17:18.169-05:00Blaming Fauci for anything is like blaming someone...Blaming Fauci for anything is like blaming someone who's been bound and half gagged by his boss for something. Seriously, Jeff: point the blame squarely where it belongs: Donald Trump. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-13967502528056305652020-04-14T16:40:36.023-05:002020-04-14T16:40:36.023-05:00“ But Fauci does not look at this and has said so....“ But Fauci does not look at this and has said so. Who is actually doing the balancing act that we need?”<br /><br />Fauci has been given a problem to solve: “How do we prevent the deaths of the largest number of Americans from this virus?”. It’s not his job to make policy decisions or create mandates. He recommends what his research and experience tells him is the best course of action in dealing with the pandemic, and the leadership is then tasked with the “balancing act” you mention above. Hopefully lessons will be learned about what works and what doesn’t. Also hopefully, “big pharma” that you are excoriating above, will come up with a viable inoculation (unprecedentedly fast) before the flu season hits this fall. <br /><br />I’ve been hearing some rumblings, but another hope of mine is that your beloved China is put on notice that the handling of their food supply is unacceptable in our current world. They and other large industrializing nations (looking at you India) need to bring up their standards in order to keep their citizens and the rest of the world safe. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-55170588727960779232020-04-14T16:21:56.075-05:002020-04-14T16:21:56.075-05:00Maybe good news? The CDC updated their website fo...Maybe good news? The CDC updated their website for the day and the current numbers are:<br /><br />579,005 cases<br />22,252. deaths <br />Rate of 3.84%<br /><br />First decline I’ve seen since the early days of reporting. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-56582278360052773812020-04-14T12:21:25.216-05:002020-04-14T12:21:25.216-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-67845335033855111222020-04-14T12:16:03.254-05:002020-04-14T12:16:03.254-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-23241269475216278032020-04-14T11:32:10.084-05:002020-04-14T11:32:10.084-05:00Jeff your weasel words are out in full force. I...Jeff your weasel words are out in full force. I'm once again forced to ignore your supposed wisdom because, just as with your attempts at Mormon apologetics, you aren't actually an expert on these things. You're just some guy with access to the same information we all have, and a bully pulpit. Take off the tinfoil hat and think about the health and safety of others for once. And keep quiet about your crackpot notions inspired by whatever wild thought skitters across your synapses. This won't be solved by you. Things are NEVER solved by the complainers and critics. <br />Why not use your free time to do something good? If this really is as overblown as you claim, take a drive down to the frontlines and volunteer your time and energy. See what things are really like right now. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-13091334980529977482020-04-14T11:23:53.955-05:002020-04-14T11:23:53.955-05:00That's why it's important to learn from pl...That's why it's important to learn from places where much more thorough testing has been done, with Iceland at the top of the list. In the early days of this virus, it looked like the death rate was over 10% (11% to 17%, as I recall). It has come down steadily. The Oxford report gives the best estimate from the global body of data, and it's around 0.4% or less. <br /><br />Yes, this illness is more problematic than the flu, but right now the beloved models from those close to Big Pharma have continually been forced to drop their estimates. No longer can the experts scare us with numbers of 1 million deaths. Now the panic-worthy 100,000 to 200,000 deaths is looking way off the mark. Current projections are putting us in line with what the flu can do. Yes, a very rough illness for those who were already ill or elderly, but has it been weighed against the tens of thousands of deaths that surely will follow from a crushed economy? Heart disease alone from the lessened activity and increased stress is a key factor. The missed cancer diagnoses will take thousands of lives, as it did in the economic troubles around 2008. Suicide and other adverse effects from mental illness is already showing an ugly increase in many regions. But Fauci does not look at this and has said so. Who is actually doing the balancing act that we need?<br /><br />And the loss of liberty is something that doesn't go away when the panic does. We have governors and mayors acting like czars and kings, threatening the sheople with jail if they go to church or visit their grandchildren. We have nanny state commissars telling stores which products they may sell and telling people where they may or may not go. And now a President who insists that he has "total authority" to do what he wants in telling the states what they can do within their borders. Even if he makes the "right" decision about when to open America up, doing it with dictatorial powers is a dreadful step and sets the stage for ongoing tyranny and total disregard of the Constitution. <br /><br />The disease is bad. Poverty and a crushed economy is worse. Tyranny is far worse. <br /><br />Shake off the chains. Jeff Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-70679283756016929422020-04-14T10:59:21.036-05:002020-04-14T10:59:21.036-05:00I'll file that anecdote and your spreadsheets ...I'll file that anecdote and your spreadsheets right where they belong, pal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-37011046142272944492020-04-14T10:33:33.984-05:002020-04-14T10:33:33.984-05:00Something to keep in mind however Anon 12:21, is t...Something to keep in mind however Anon 12:21, is that, as Jeff states above, the number of confirmed cases versus the number of actual cases is likely vastly different, which would show a much lower death rate than the CDC numbers would suggest. <br /><br />Here’s an anecdote for you (pointing out that it’s an anecdote so you know the difference, since it appears you don’t). The mother of a local LDS family of 8 or 9 became ill with the virus. She was confirmed to have the virus by testing. Most of her family, including her husband, became ill shortly afterwards. Because of the limited availability of tests, the rest of her family was not tested and was therefore not confirmed to have the virus (it was assumed they did however). In this case the number of confirmed cases is 1, even though the number of actual cases was likely anywhere from 6-10. So Jeff’s overall point is well put—the actual death rate is likely much lower than what the current numbers show. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-69984664298286307912020-04-14T09:51:03.475-05:002020-04-14T09:51:03.475-05:00Anon 12:21
You clearly don’t know what I’m doing....Anon 12:21<br /><br />You clearly don’t know what I’m doing. No anecdotes here. I’m just sharing verifiable information that’s available from the CDC that contradicts a statement Jeff made above. No misinformation or fear mongering involved. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-73212724335733321902020-04-14T00:21:19.971-05:002020-04-14T00:21:19.971-05:00You clearly don't know what you're doing A...You clearly don't know what you're doing Anonymous @8:43. Many, many experts from actual scientific fields confirm what has been reported on this blog. Put your spreadsheet away, this isn't your area of expertise. No one asked you to do that and no one needs you to. Your lack of knowledge of the subject does a disservice to yourself and others. Worse, sharing your anecdotes in a public forum like this only spreads fear. Stop it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-68318356186781840862020-04-13T20:43:48.157-05:002020-04-13T20:43:48.157-05:00“When a new virus comes, the only cases known are ...“When a new virus comes, the only cases known are the real serious ones that go to the hospital, resulting in frightening CFR statistics that tend to decline steadily.”<br /><br />I’ve been following the CDC website for several weeks now and recording their numbers on a spreadsheet. There has been no decline. The lowest ratio I recorded was 33,404 cases and 400 deaths (death rate of 1.19%). As of today the report shows 554,849 cases with 21,942 deaths (3.95% death rate). The death rate percentage has been steadily climbing as the number of cases has been increasing—no dips or “steady declines” at all. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-83146305635342257422020-04-13T08:22:45.280-05:002020-04-13T08:22:45.280-05:00Interesting. As the post says, the BoM "conf...Interesting. As the post says, the BoM "confirms" the predominate Christian ideas of the human mind it was "miraculous"ly transmitted to. It is also interesting how the BoM does not confirm the Christian ideas of that same human as they evolved after the BoM. Still, no one knows why any of this "demand attention", after the all the post says the BoM confirms what was already known to Christians.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-62105493061793961772020-04-12T19:31:10.608-05:002020-04-12T19:31:10.608-05:00Iceland is a neat place to visit, I have gone ther...Iceland is a neat place to visit, I have gone there and enjoyed the trip.<br /><br />One thing to remember is that recovery from Coronavirus is a lot longer than the seasonal flu. A number that I would be interested in is how many people fully recover after being hospitalized? I also suspect that people that need to be hospitalized as as result of the Coronavirus probably spend more time in the hospital than those that need to be hospitalized as a result of the seasonal flu. So, it is more about supply and demand. The demand on our health care system appears to be a lot higher than it is with seasonal flu.<br /><br />Steve<br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com