tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post8654010384239160111..comments2023-11-02T07:25:45.884-05:00Comments on Mormanity - a blog for those interested in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints: Science-based vs. Faith-based Policies for Coping with the Corona VirusJeff Lindsayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-56012113820909361842020-05-01T23:30:33.761-05:002020-05-01T23:30:33.761-05:00Great article. Thanks for the link. Great article. Thanks for the link. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-50420787244753202652020-05-01T09:28:34.074-05:002020-05-01T09:28:34.074-05:00I thought this was a good explanation (from an act...I thought this was a good explanation (from an actual epidemiologist) of how much more dangerous the coronavirus is than the seasonal flu, and how easy it is for us non-epidemiologists to get the numbers wrong: <br /><br />http://blog.deonandan.com/wordpress/2020/04/covid19-lets-talk-about-the-bakersfield-duo.html<br /><br />— OKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-16073219629229303012020-04-30T18:12:34.093-05:002020-04-30T18:12:34.093-05:00No one should believe anything Stossel has to say ...No one should believe anything Stossel has to say on any matter. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-77294516268496385682020-04-29T08:39:23.211-05:002020-04-29T08:39:23.211-05:00The reference to socialism and Scandinavia is prob...The reference to socialism and Scandinavia is probably not because of educational vouchers, but universal health care coverage. An apples and oranges comparisons for America. The health care systems involved entirely different making “medicare for all" way to simplistic of a solution to any major American concern.<br /><br />An under discussed item is American Mennonites and healthcare. I would find Jeff’s research and analysis on the subject interesting. The Mennonites do not reject modern medicine, but they definitely have a faith-centered and nongovernmental approach.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-60549003176939638742020-04-28T13:36:53.227-05:002020-04-28T13:36:53.227-05:00It’s also not communism. Words have meanings.
— O...It’s also not communism. Words have meanings.<br /><br />— OKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-51227696398734687012020-04-28T11:58:59.995-05:002020-04-28T11:58:59.995-05:00youtube : Stossel: Sweden is Not a Socialist Succe...youtube : Stossel: Sweden is Not a Socialist SuccessAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-25867883592592189962020-04-28T09:05:33.893-05:002020-04-28T09:05:33.893-05:00Anon 1:19, don’t be silly. The United States is no...Anon 1:19, don’t be silly. The United States is not on the brink of going communist. Instead of talking to your friends in Eastern Europe, try talking to some people in Scandinavia. <br /><br />— OKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-79954041032548962512020-04-28T01:19:20.685-05:002020-04-28T01:19:20.685-05:00When I talk to my older friends from eastern Europ...When I talk to my older friends from eastern Europe all they do is roll their eyes and say that Americans have no understanding of how destructive communism is and how it's now our turn to learn this lesson.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-19179769825888105662020-04-28T01:11:50.656-05:002020-04-28T01:11:50.656-05:00Life is so precious it should be worth sacrificing...Life is so precious it should be worth sacrificing everything to save it. None should be lost. There won't be any costs to this proposal if we say counting those "potential costs" are a sign of lack of compassion. That will give us the moral authority to be so thorough and absolute in our plan. We will only measure our successes. Said Satan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-75039173887608749752020-04-27T19:14:41.996-05:002020-04-27T19:14:41.996-05:00Yes, local governments should have been getting in...Yes, local governments should have been getting information and guidance from higher up. It is of course the federal government that the requisite information-gathering capability and expertise. History will not look kindly on the current administration. Hopefully voters won’t either.<br /><br />— OKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-22473812979772335272020-04-27T18:32:05.012-05:002020-04-27T18:32:05.012-05:00If the mortality rates was truly 2%, as we were or...If the mortality rates was truly 2%, as we were originally told, then Jeff would be wrong. But now the mortality rate is know to be 0.5%, Jeff is right, this was a over reaction. Knowing real mortality rates a priori is something that is nearly impossible with current science. It would be nice if mankind had some kind of living oracle that could tell us these things ahead of time.<br /><br />With regards to legal frameworks, the subway mistake on the local government, but local governments are not expected to have the resources to know such things ahead of time. The State of NY should have given the local government better info. <br /><br />But the State did not necessarily have the legal power to ban flights from Europe, the federal government did. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-34083956802431182552020-04-27T18:16:14.921-05:002020-04-27T18:16:14.921-05:00The basic principles here are simple:
- You must ...The basic principles here are simple:<br /><br />- You must be near someone who is infected in order to become infected yourself (or touch something they did, etc).<br />- Neither you nor (asymptomatic) infected people know who is infected and who is not.<br />- Therefore, in order to stop spreading disease, we need everyone to stop getting near other people. Translating this into public policy is the tricky part, but given that nobody thinks they are the problem until it's too late, I don't know how you drive compliance without lockdowns. (That's not to defend every single application.)<br /><br />I think the piece you are missing, though, is that this doesn't have to be the only strategy. Testing is the great medium-term liberator, because if we can figure out who is infected and who isn't, then the number of people who need to be isolated drops dramatically. Instead of agitating against restrictions, maybe agitate for more testing!Jared*noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-89832524202163588162020-04-27T17:23:24.135-05:002020-04-27T17:23:24.135-05:00Jeff writes, If we surrender our rights now, what ...Jeff writes, <i>If we surrender our rights now, what will be left for our children?</i><br /><br />One could revise this to read as follows: <i>If we surrender our rights to spread infection during the extraordinary circumstances of a pandemic, what will be left for our children?</i><br /><br />Not all slopes are slippery. Given where we are right now, the real job for those of us concerned with rights is to begin discussing the creation of a better legal/constitutional groundwork for emergencies such as this one. How can we empower governments to effectively deal with real threats to public health without also empowering them to permanently erode our rights? This discussion could do with a little less rhetorical posturing, a little more seriousness and patience and willingness to engage with civic minutiae, and a little more faith in our institutions. For most of us, a good first step might be to read the state laws concerning emergency declarations, with a critical eye to whatever safeguards they might contain. It’s all available online.<br /><br />— OKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-25815695729504988032020-04-27T12:48:17.015-05:002020-04-27T12:48:17.015-05:00Jeff, I obviously can’t specify the mathematical r...Jeff, I obviously can’t specify the mathematical relationship between additional deaths and economic impact, but I’m pretty sure it’s not linear (because, e.g., of the decreasing quality of treatment as medical personnel get sick, supplies run out, ICU space gets overrun, etc.).<br /><br />Also, you seem to be confusing “risk” with “outcomes,” a bit like the guy who plays Russian roulette, survives, and then says “See, there was no risk!” But of course, regardless of that particular outcome, playing Russian roulette is risky, and it’s certainly not good public policy.<br /><br />— OKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-6497748664195812602020-04-27T11:33:16.890-05:002020-04-27T11:33:16.890-05:00""If you are afraid for your physical or...""If you are afraid for your physical or your economic health, aren't you betraying a lack of faith in your god and your food storage?"<br /><br />I take it you didn't read my post and my comments, Anon. I am full of faith and have total trust in my God. My trust in politicians, celebrities, and the media is less absolute. Since I don't think you read much of what I wrote, I'll explain that I was not expressing concern about my economic situation, though there has been pain, nor the amount of boring foodstuffs I have obtained in the past couple of weeks since moving back to Wisconsin. I am doing OK and have a stash of oatmeal, rice, and some bland canned foods. I may be OK. It's others I am worried about.<br /><br />I am expressing concern not for me but for the tens of millions who have become unemployed, possibly unnecessarily. I am expression concern for the millions struggling with mental health issues who may not be receiving visits, professional help, or opportunities to do meaningful work, and may not even be allowed to go outside for a life-sustaining walk along the beach or lake. I am expressing concern for the children and women who have to be cooped up all day with an abusive man who is angry over his lost job and is increasingly drinking. I am expression concern for the harm and pain caused by the decreased respect of personal rights, such as the traumatic scene faced by some mothers giving birth who find that hospitals won't allow their husband to be there to comfort them and make sure the baby is safe, some of whom face the risk of having staff decide against the mother's will to take the baby away if the mother tests positive for COVID-19. I am expressing concern for the millions of small business owners and innovators who have put their fortune, their family's fortunes, their friends' fortunes, and their lives into a successful business, only to have it suddenly shut down by a bureaucrat whose paycheck is secure and who is unwilling to hear any second-guessing of their imperial decree that the business is somehow not "essential" and this must be shut down. Unnecessary, illogical, utterly non-scientific decrees that abuse their power, deny Constitutional rights, and cause oppression and harm to people who are striving to build our nation while the elite rulers shut it down.<br /><br />The pain is terrible, the long-term impact is harmful and deadly. I'm so very sorry that you and millions of others are unable or unwilling to empathize with such great pain as we begin our Second Great Depression. It's time we stop yielding to media fear and the manipulations of elite leaders to reclaim our rights and get America started again. If we surrender our rights now, what will be left for our children?Jeff Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-77193956389209729942020-04-27T11:31:02.708-05:002020-04-27T11:31:02.708-05:00OK, we're not yet at the number of deaths from...OK, we're not yet at the number of deaths from the 2017 flu season, but getting close. So what multiple of that year's economic impact do you propose? If we get four times as many deaths from COVID-19 as flu brings, what do you propose for the mathematical relationship between the economic cost of the disease? Is there any plausible analysis that can make it worth gutting 25% of the GDP and sending tens of millions into poverty, especially when the health impact of doing so may be more lives than were allegedly saved? Jeff Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-79997109326397933842020-04-27T11:22:03.311-05:002020-04-27T11:22:03.311-05:00Jeff, you’re assuming a linear relationship betwee...Jeff, you’re assuming a linear relationship between number of deaths and total economic impact. I suspect that’s a very dubious assumption.<br /><br />— OKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-2185182721858462622020-04-27T11:06:19.032-05:002020-04-27T11:06:19.032-05:00OK and others, regarding the calculus of economic ...OK and others, regarding the calculus of economic dislocation from disease, a wise friend whose Ph.D. involved virology just shared a thought with me. He pointed to this article: Liang Miao et al., "<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3479051/" rel="nofollow">Annual economic impacts of seasonal influenza on US counties: Spatial heterogeneity and patterns</a>," Int. Journal of Health Geographics, 11/16 (2012); https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3479051/. He observed that the economic impact of COVID19 alone (deaths, loss of work days, medical costs, etc, not counting the societal response) can be estimated based on estimates of economic impact of flu. For example, if you think COVID-19 will infect and kill 5x as many as seasonal flu you can multiply these numbers by 5 for a ballpark order of magnitude estimate. Turning to the cited article of Liang Miao et al., for seasonal flu, it looks like an annual cost of $27-$87 billion (so maybe multiply that by 5 for a worst case, or let's say 6 to factor in inflation). For a more extreme pandemic flu season, they cite estimates as high as $170 billion. These can give order of magnitude estimates for economic impact. Then let's compare that to the many trillions of costs that we are facing (6 trillion impact just in terms of the money being thrown to the Fed and others, plus many trillions of harm to the GDP for this year and probably for years to come because so much is being broken). It may be that the treatment (definitely not a "cure") is far more harmful economically than the disease. <br /><br />That's not to say that strong mitigating measures of some kind in crowded hotspots don't help -- simply stopping subway travel or greatly increasing rather than decreasing the number of trains to allow people to have more distance -- would have probably done much to lessen the spread in New York City. Sadly, as with many aspects of this disease, what the government in New York chose to do by cutting down the number of subway trains was probably the worse possible, most foolish and dangerous step they could have taken. Either close the trains for a while or greatly expand the number so that fewer people will be breathing the same air. Jeff Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-74450324784116229222020-04-27T09:20:55.342-05:002020-04-27T09:20:55.342-05:00Jeff, I agree that a $1,000 fine is ludicrous. Sho...Jeff, I agree that a $1,000 fine is ludicrous. Should be something more like a first-offense warning, like for driving 74 in a 65 mph zone, followed with maybe $100 fine on second offense. Tens of thousands of Californians have been hitting the beach anyway (see https://www.ocregister.com/2020/04/25/eager-early-risers-hit-the-beach-in-san-clemente-as-closure-lifts). That’s in Orange County; next door, in LA and San Diego counties, beaches are apparently closed and deserted. Local control, an American tradition.<br /><br />— OKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-4099076570150791822020-04-27T06:00:01.264-05:002020-04-27T06:00:01.264-05:00I've heard that COVID-19 cases are perhaps ove...I've heard that COVID-19 cases are perhaps overreported, since the default is to put COVID-19 when in doubt, in the absence of testing. Can you provide a source, QL42, so we can find out which is accurate?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-37454466371772544272020-04-26T22:33:24.801-05:002020-04-26T22:33:24.801-05:00When did anyone tell people to be afraid and huddl...When did anyone tell people to be afraid and huddle? Maybe you've missed a lot of the media recently with constant focus on death and disaster from COVID-19. Maybe you've missed the dramatic campaigns of celebrities, politicians, and healthcare workers telling us over and over "STAY HOME. STAY HOME. STAY HOME."<br /><br />I'm glad this is not having much impact on you and that things seem voluntary in your part of California. I'm not sure others in your state would agree, though, such as the 7 people were were fined $1000 for going to 7-11 to buy some drinks. See "<a href="https://abc7news.com/shelter-in-place-violation-will-i-get-ticketed-for-violating-the-shelter-order-santa-cruz-ticket-in-place-california-covid-19/6095620/" rel="nofollow">7 people issued $1,000 tickets for violating COVID-19 shelter-in-place order, Santa Cruz police chief says</a>" or the case of <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-04/coronavirus-violators-arrested-criminally-charged-california-cracks-down" rel="nofollow">a paddleboarder and also a surfer who were arrested or fined for going into the water contrary to the COVID-19 lockdown orders</a>, when the risk of spreading or catching COVID-19 while out alone in the water would seem to be zero. <a href="https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/04/05/san-diego-sheriff-brags-about-giving-out-1000-fines-to-people-for-sitting-in-their-cars-at-the-beach/" rel="nofollow">People in San Diego have received $1,000 tickets and could face up to two-years in prison for sitting in a car near the beach</a>, more than 6 feet away from others. Glad you haven't had any trouble, but it looks like they really do want you to huddle at home and not go get drinks at 7-11, enjoy a sunset near the beach, or do anything in the water. Is there science behind this? Logic? Or an unjustified deprivation of the fundamental freedom to travel, to assemble, and to, uh, get sugary beverages at 7-11? OK, the Founding Fathers might not have been thinking about that last one, or the right to surf, but seriously, the crackdown on citizens has become ridiculous and unreasonable. Jeff Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-48172081143381135452020-04-26T22:29:10.173-05:002020-04-26T22:29:10.173-05:00A few other things.
Excess deaths. The number of ...A few other things.<br /><br />Excess deaths. The number of deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 does not include everyone who dies from the virus. If the person has not been officially tested then they are not included in the official count. One way to account for this is to measure the number of "excess deaths", that is the number of deaths above the average for the past 10 years. The number of excess deaths potentially doubles the number of deaths from COVID-19, while in other cases it can raise it by a factor of 20 (in Indonesia). Details from <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries" rel="nofollow">The Economist</a>.<br /><br />Second, the number of available ICU beds. If someone gets adequate medical care their chances of survival goes way up. The mortality rate for those who get full care is below 1% and is only 5-10 times worse than the flu. But once ICU beds are full and resources are depleted the mortality rate can go up by a factor of 20-50. Even in a bad year for the flu the number of hospitalizations and the number of ICU patients is below the total number of available beds.<br /><br />Because the coronavirus spreads faster than the flu it has a greater capability to overwhelm hospitals in a very short amount of time. This is what happened in Italy, Spain, and New York City. This just doesn't affect COVID-19 patients, but everyone. If someone is in a car accident but the hospital is full of coronavirus patients, then the accident victim will not survive because of the coronavirus. No resources for coronavirus patients means no resources for anyone else.<br /><br />No matter how high the number of undetected coronavirus cases is, the number of known cases and hospitalizations has to be kept low enough during any one week or the case-fatality ratio will go up.Quantumleap42https://www.blogger.com/profile/16711817313734546305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-70468981819924413812020-04-26T22:12:35.342-05:002020-04-26T22:12:35.342-05:00Wait, Quantum, can you please clarify your comment...Wait, Quantum, can you please clarify your comment on South Dakota and Utah? I must be misunderstanding because as I read your words, it sounds like you are saying those two states have such low death rates that they can't be fairly compared to the lockdown states with higher death rates. Isn't the low number of cases and the low death rate part of why they are important to consider and why they might have something to teach us? According to many fear mongers, the states that don't do lockdowns should soon be falling into apocalyptic horror. When I first noted South Dakota's example, I had voices on the Left saying that South Dakota's graveyards would soon be full and nobody would be left to enjoy their healthy economy. Those predictions remain wildly incorrect (10 deaths for South Dakota so far, 41 for Utah, both tragic, but tiny compared to typical flu seasons - Utah have 341 deaths in the 2017-18 flu season for example). <br /><br />The fact that South Dakota and Utah have low mortality rates from COVID-19 doesn't mean that they are irrelevant. In fact, to me, it helps give the lie to the predictions that have been made for those who refuse draconian lockdowns and shows that states can stay healthy economically and physically. Sweden's has had more trouble, but they have still avoided a crisis like New York or Italy by relying on social distancing. Vietnam has done remarkably well without economic suicide as have other states. <br /><br />What is the scientific evidence that a lockdown should have been in South Dakota -- or anywhere else? Progress was being made already from natural social distancing before lockdowns were imposed, or would have been realized if lockdowns were not imposed. Models were already considering lockdowns in predictions that were wildly off. The gurus tells us that the numbers came way down from what was predicted thanks to the American people submitting to their recommendations, but had no lock downs been done, would the numbers be any worse? Is there scientific evidence that by crushing small shops and sending everybody flocking to Walmart, we are safer than if we were deciding where to shop on our own? Is there evidence that by shutting down gyms and parks and forcing people to stay home while crushing most businesses, that we are better off than doing social distancing on our own? And is there evidence that by the government lying to us about face makes, telling us that we don't need them because they are ineffective, and then later telling us in April that, "oh, we just learned that there are asymptomatic spreaders so now face masks should be worn" (something the government knew much earlier than that!)? <br /><br />What is the actual scientific evidence that the draconian policies are doing any good overall? Or that they are even doing better than we were doing by social distancing and hand washing already before they were imposed? Showing that numbers slowed or came down does not prove that any aspect of the draconian policies were helping. It could all be due to natural social distancing, as was occurring all over the US and continues to occur even in places like South Dakota, or it could also have been due to other factors such as weather, decreased influx of sick people from overseas, or factors we don't know yet. <br /><br />If there is not evidence that the lockdowns themselves are necessary, and if there is no clear evidence that their overall impact on America is a net positive rather than the stupidest national economic decision in history that will set us back decades and cost tens of millions their jobs and lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths, then what is the scientific basis for taking such a horrific step? Fear, panic, and blind faith in anointed leaders, or sound science? I respect faith in many cases, but not this one. It's time for science. <br /><br />Jeff Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776493593387402607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-52823454825472853822020-04-26T21:56:37.887-05:002020-04-26T21:56:37.887-05:00One thing Jeff didn't get into is that we now ...One thing Jeff didn't get into is that we now know far more about how to treat severe COVID-19 cases than we used to. That's a good argument in support of the initial shutdown. Further, we now have evidence that most people who get this virus are asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms. That's also important information we didn't have initially. <br /><br />Further, we can now look at fatality rates for the various countries of the world and narrow down possible environmental factors that interact with COVID-19 infections to exacerbate or ameliorate symptoms. For example, the cytokine interleukin-6, which is the main one implicated in the "cytokine storm" COVID-19 apparently brings on in severe cases, can be decreased or increased by things in the diet. It's fascinating to note that ginger, turmeric, and glucosamine (found in shrimp paste) consumption correlate extremely well with lower country/regional death rates, for all three of those items have been researched and found to decrease interleukin-6 production. And, hamburger (ground beef) and coffee, which tend to increase interleukin-6 levels, are eaten in large amounts by the areas that have been getting hit hardest with COVID-19 deaths. <br /><br />India, where turmeric and ginger are the order of the day, while beef and coffee definitely are not, still has under 900 COVID-19 deaths despite having cases all over the country. No, it's not due to their shutdowns, for they are a crowded country of 1.35 billion people, over 100 million of which still practice "open defecation." It's absurd to think that India is doing shutdowns that are more effective at preventing transmission than, say, France.C Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01178189190498225759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139169.post-69329345727581421352020-04-26T21:53:18.865-05:002020-04-26T21:53:18.865-05:00If you are afraid for your physical or your econom...If you are afraid for your physical or your economic health, aren't you betraying a lack of faith in your god and your food storage?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com